By: The circuit named after the Rodríguez brothers sits at an altitude of almost 2,250 metres above sea level. The thin air makes it more difficult to find the right aerodynamic set-up and allow the cars to perform at their full potential. It also prevents drivers from attacking corners with their usual confidence and bringing the tyres up to temperature through conventional working methods. The challenges increase, and not everyone can extract the maximum from the package at their disposal. In a scenario of risks and opportunities, Lewis Hamilton secured his first pole position with Ferrari, giving the team its first pole of the season.
Pirelli's strategic recommendations - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez - 71 laps
The top five therefore consists of Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc, Antonelli and Verstappen. A quintet that promises action and battle over the 71 laps of the race. Before sharing our thoughts on the possible strategies, let us look at the advice Dario Marrafuschi gave the teams at the end of qualifying: “We head into the race with a fairly open scenario. One- and two-stop options are equally competitive. The Medium and Soft combinations seem capable of delivering good overall race times. The choice will depend on the car's behaviour, the level of aerodynamic load and the traffic on track after the stop.”
“Many teams should favour starting on the Medium, then switching to the Soft between laps 35 and 41. Tyre management will be a crucial factor. The two-stop alternative involves starting the race on Softs, completing a middle stint on Mediums and a final stint on Softs. For those attempting a two-stop strategy, traffic will be the element that could make the difference,” Marrafuschi continued.
“The Hard does not appear to be a particularly competitive option. It could perhaps come into play in the event of an early-race neutralisation. If that happens, teams could consider fitting the C3 to make just one stop, or switch to a two-stop strategy. Compared with Friday, we have not observed significant abrasion or graining. Several long runs showed tyres in excellent condition,” the Italian manager concluded.
The doubts mainly concern Ferrari
We almost entirely agree with Dario Marrafuschi and Pirelli. In the simulations carried out on Friday, the teams showed that the C4 Medium performed well. Given what it can achieve in terms of tyre management, Mercedes could comfortably manage a one-stop race. McLaren and Red Bull, however, may face greater difficulties completing the race with just one set of Mediums and one of Softs…
The Grand Prix will probably begin with a good number of cars on the C4 Medium. This choice will allow engineers to assess the compound's degradation and understand which direction to take for the remainder of the race. If degradation is not too severe, it will be possible to follow Pirelli's recommendations, using only C4 Mediums and C5 Softs in either a one- or two-stop scenario.
If, on the other hand, degradation puts the drivers in difficulty, which we expect could happen to Leclerc and Hamilton, the engineers may have to turn to the C3 Hard in order not to lose too much time in the pits. Fitting the C3 Hard would mean taking the risk of a difficult stint, as it is now well known that the Prancing Horse is not comfortable with this compound. But if the Mediums were also to deteriorate quickly, losing competitiveness after 20-25 laps, there would unfortunately not be many other alternatives. At that point, the only other possible solution would be a three-stop strategy using one set of Mediums and three sets of Softs, but a huge amount of time would be lost in the pit stops.
Looking at the long runs completed by the teams on Friday, Leclerc's stint does not leave us particularly confident that Ferrari can complete the race using only Mediums and Softs (read here), while maintaining a competitive pace. The only hope is that the track evolved sufficiently yesterday to make the C4 easier for the Maranello drivers to manage, but at the moment it remains difficult for us to say that with certainty.
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