By: The Mexico City GP was an event full of twists and turns. A race that began with drivers making extensive use of the C5 Soft compound appeared, shortly before the red flag caused by Valtteri Bottas' accident (a failure of the front-left suspension), to be heading towards a magical finale that would reward the best tyre management.
Unfortunately, or fortunately, the red flag on lap 46 reset everything, wiping out the teams' strategies. It allowed Max Verstappen to win the race with complete control, while Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) finished P2 after passing team-mate Charles Leclerc at the second start.
Strategy recap
Before discussing what we believe was the race's most important moment, though, let us recap all the strategies. Shortly before the start, there was uncertainty over whether a one-stop or two-stop approach would be best. By changing his C5 Softs on lap 43, Antonelli had made a very clear statement of intent, while the others would have faced a more difficult decision over what to do.
The red flag settled the matter for everyone, calling the mechanics into action for two tyre changes. Verstappen won on a Medium-Soft-Soft strategy, also used by Lawson, Colapinto and Bortoleto. Hamilton finished second on S-M-S, as did Antonelli (just two laps on C4 Mediums), Leclerc, Norris, Russell, Piastri, Gasly, Hadjar (who actually ran S-M-S-S) and Sainz.
Hirakawa (called up to replace Esteban Ocon at Haas in Mexico) scored points on his debut in 10th place, benefiting from penalties for Piastri, Colapinto and Gasly, thanks to a three-stop Medium-Soft-Soft-Soft strategy. Hulkenberg also used that strategy. Perez finished outside the points on Soft-Medium-Soft-Soft. Albon ran Soft-Soft-Medium-Soft. The GP saw retirements for Lindblad, Bearman, Bottas, Stroll and Alonso.
The red flag denies Antonelli a fairytale
Two key incidents shaped the battle for victory. The first was the contact between the Ferraris at the start, with Leclerc handed a five-second penalty for taking the lead by cutting Turn 4. Leclerc defended the lead until the tyre change, made by both drivers on lap 27, but Verstappen then took advantage of the penalty to return to the front. The pair appeared to be in control, but having changed tyres so early, it remained to be seen whether they would need another stop.
At the time of the red flag, Leclerc was on C4 Medium tyres that were 18 laps old, while Verstappen was on C5 Softs with the same mileage. Had the red flag not come out, the victory would probably have gone to world champion Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who once again demonstrated Mercedes' extraordinary qualities yesterday by completing a 45-lap stint on C5 Softs.
Unfortunately, we have no data on what his race pace would have been on Mediums: the red flag did not allow us to see it. However, given the substantial tyre advantage, we believe Antonelli would have had no difficulty in closing the roughly 12-second gap separating him from the leading group. Especially if Verstappen or the Ferraris had then been forced to make another stop. In this case, the red flag denied Antonelli the poetry of winning the world title with what would probably have been a beautiful victory. He still secured the title by reaching the podium.
Ferrari saved by the red flag
As for Ferrari, instinctively, even if Leclerc and Hamilton had managed to finish the race without any additional stops, they could only have aimed for P3 and P4, with Antonelli and Verstappen fighting for victory. Making a second stop would probably not have jeopardised those positions, but it would nevertheless have provided yet another demonstration of just how large the gap Ferrari face to Mercedes is. Hamilton would never have finished second without the race suspension, and probably neither would Leclerc.
Pirelli backs the one-stop strategy even without the red flag
At the end of the 71 laps scheduled for the Mexico City GP, Pirelli's motorsport director commented on the result to the company's media channels: “First of all, congratulations to Kimi Antonelli on winning the world title. It is a fully deserved success, built on consistent performance. Without the neutralisations, a one-stop strategy would in any case have been the most competitive solution. Both the Soft and the Medium proved capable of covering around half the race. The red C5 once again confirmed itself as the benchmark compound. Its degradation was similar to that of the C4, but it delivered grip and confidence. It is no surprise that every driver chose the Soft for the final stint after the Safety Car, despite also having the Hard available.”
“Technically, tyre behaviour was positive,” continued Dario Marrafuschi. “There were no significant graining issues and degradation was in line with expectations. Leclerc's lock-up at the restart after the red flag also provided further proof of the sound design of these tyres. The tyre sliding across the asphalt caused particularly severe localised wear on the front-left, bringing it very close to the internal structural layers.” His pace suffered as a result, but Leclerc still managed to finish the race without any further stops, holding off Norris' attacks to protect P4.
“The performance of the Soft in Antonelli's stint was also particularly interesting: it completed 43 laps while maintaining very limited degradation and competitive pace until the closing stages of the race. There was no place for the C3 in the race. The white compound would have offered no performance advantage over the two softer compounds. Overall, the indications gathered confirm a very straightforward picture, consistent with the pre-event simulations in terms of both degradation and the competitiveness of the various strategies,” concluded the Italian manager.
Cover and interior photos by Ryan Fleming / WHYOUT Images
internal graphics: Pirelli
All the news, photos, weather, session times and times from the Mexican GP 2026
