By: Saturday 26 September may be an unusual race day in Baku. The Azerbaijani city has been granted permission to shift its race weekend forward by a day, allowing it to celebrate its holiday on Sunday in complete peace. The Grand Prix gets under way at 13:00, but what can we expect from this event?
We have told you in every possible way that Mercedes is strong. In a normal race, without a Safety Car, we expect Russell to set the pace and control the race entirely on his own. Fortunately, though, this is Baku, a street circuit where the long main straight will certainly provide some overtaking opportunities. So, with Antonelli starting 16th after an error in Q1, we can say the spectacle is guaranteed.
Pirelli’s strategic recommendations - Baku City Circuit - 51 laps
Before sharing our own view, though, let us hear from Pirelli ahead of the race: “The weather conditions were different compared with practice. Air and track temperatures were lower, and we had fairly strong winds, which contributed to making the cars less stable, especially at the rear.”
“The indications gathered so far confirm that a one-stop strategy remains the most competitive option. Combinations involving the Medium and Soft appear particularly effective, given the limited level of wear. The potential use of the Hard in the second stint could represent an alternative worth considering in the event of an early-race neutralisation,” concludes Pirelli motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi.
The risk of neutralisations shuffles the pack
Here in Baku, perhaps for the first time this year, our view differs slightly from Marrafuschi’s, though it is not too far removed. In our opinion, the best strategy is to rely on two sets of the harder compounds rather than use the softer combination. It changes the race outlook slightly, but ultimately the core concepts behind it are essentially the same.
The Soft C5 offers a small advantage off the line and has shown good consistency, but we believe using it in the opening stages of the race could be a risk. This is solely because of the ever-present threat of a Safety Car or other neutralisations in Baku. Taking up a grid position on Medium tyres is, in our view, the best choice and, moreover, does not rule out using the Soft at the end.
Starting on the C4 Medium will not bring a major disadvantage in terms of launch, as the first corner is very close to the start line. Getting away well and avoiding contact is a must in Azerbaijan. Without a Safety Car, there is an opportunity to extend the first stint and, depending on the consistency and feeling achieved, assess whether to finish the race on Hards or persist with a shorter final stint on Softs. Looking at the times set by some drivers on the Hard in practice, we have the impression that the Hard could be the most effective choice.
In Antonelli’s case, however, we are a little more torn. For the same reasons, starting from P16, Kimi could consider fitting the Hard from the outset, allowing him to exploit an early SC to get ahead of those who opted to start on Softs and extend the first stint in order to get as close as possible to the podium before embarking on the final run. The Bolognese driver will attempt to repeat his Monza result and, if his race pace is as strong as it appears, it should not be as impossible as people think.
All Pirelli compounds represent a good option for today’s race. We simply believe we could see a race geared more towards the use of the Hard compounds than the softer tyres.
All the news, photos, weather, session times and times from the Azerbaijan GP 2026
