By: At 09:00 tomorrow, 4 October, the formation lap for the Bahrain GP in Malaysia will get under way. Max Verstappen starts from pole ahead of Lewis Hamilton, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc behind them. It promises to be an intriguing contest, especially as, looking at the race pace (read here), those four were the ones who stood out for the strength of their pace in Friday’s simulations. Russell was another who particularly impressed, although starting from P7 will certainly be something of a handicap for him. The alternative is to make a good start.
Pirelli’s strategic advice - Sepang International Circuit - 56 laps
There will be plenty of factors to keep under control. Before setting out our view on strategy, however, let us look at Pirelli’s assessment of tomorrow’s race: “The degradation affecting the C4 today meant it was not possible to set competitive laps after the first flying attempt. Looking ahead to the race, however, the C4 Soft appears capable of maintaining an acceptable level of consistency. At least, that is what we observed in yesterday’s simulations. For this to happen, the compound needs to be brought gradually into the correct operating window.”
“The strategies will be very interesting,” continued Dario Marrafuschi. “Most drivers have two sets of Hard tyres available, which is a solid option for the longer stints. Medium-Hard-Hard and Soft-Hard-Hard appear to be the most competitive options. Verstappen and Leclerc, however, have only one set of C2 Hards, so they could consider different routes. They could make greater use of the Soft and Medium compounds, or they could also consider three-stop strategies. Should that scenario be pursued, the possibilities would become extremely numerous: shorter stints and greater flexibility.”
“A one-stop strategy is not recommended. There are no advantages in terms of overall race time. The only other unknown is the weather. Should it rain, the teams would be forced to take other routes,” concluded the Pirelli motorsport director.
An interesting strategic variation
Today, we largely agree with Marrafuschi, although we do not share his level of certainty. What we can say is that we too believe there could be a range of two- and three-stop strategies. This is because, while the Hard could prove very consistent, the C3 Medium has not worked particularly well on most cars.
In our view, the only driver who might perhaps be able to risk a one-stop strategy is Max Verstappen, who shone particularly brightly on the C3 Medium on Friday. If the Medium works and can last beyond 20-22 laps, a single pit stop would become a viable route. Verstappen could make it work, and that could be a double-edged sword for the Dutchman: a strength that could work against him.
Committing to a Medium-Hard one-stop strategy would save him a pit stop, but those opting for two stops would certainly be able to push harder on the more competitive compounds for a shorter period. The Bahrain GP in Malaysia will run over 56 laps. If drivers can complete 15-16 laps on the C4 Soft, the two-stop S-S-H strategy could be highly competitive. Otherwise, S-M-H could be equally advantageous.
Regardless of Red Bull’s potential, the best strategy for tomorrow’s race should be a two-stopper, using both sets of C2 Hards. We believe the leading teams will head in that direction with S-M-H or M-H-H strategies, depending on the compounds they have remaining.
Ferrari would be better off avoiding the C3, or keeping its use to a minimum. Leclerc could opt for S-S-H or, if necessary, S-M-H, while Hamilton, who has two sets of Hard tyres, will have no problem completing the race with an S-H-H approach.
We believe, then, that the predominant strategy will be a two-stopper, not least because almost all drivers still have two sets of Hards. Among the drivers from the leading teams, only Leclerc and Verstappen have just one set.
Cover and interior photos by Peter Kiss / WHYOUT Images
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