By: The two free-practice sessions held at Monza have given us a fairly clear picture of the situation, provided these high temperatures remain (track temperatures around 55° C, give or take a degree) and the teams have not been hiding too much. Looking at the fast laps on low fuel, while Leclerc had finished ahead of Hamilton and Russell in the first session, putting around three tenths on the Mercedes driver, it was George who beat Charles by 120 thousandths in the second practice session.
Exceptionally tight gaps for a fast circuit such as Monza. It is no coincidence that the paddock is at the ‘Temple of Speed’. Analysis of the race-pace simulations from FP2 paints an even more closely matched picture.
Data analysis
McLaren appear to have held something back. It is unclear whether they ran more fuel or used less power unit, but the two papaya cars showed a very similar pace to one another, though they were some way off the other contenders.
Mercedes and Ferrari certainly looked the strongest. Antonelli is clearly in great form and, starting from the back to serve his penalty, will have the pace needed to climb comfortably at least into the top eight/top 10, if not aim for something even better.
We therefore put Antonelli in first place, also because of the huge number of laps he completed on the Hard tyre. In reality, the fastest was, surprisingly, Liam Lawson in the Red Bull (standing in for the injured Hadjar). However, we believe his pace was somewhat skewed by the fact that he used a set of C3 Hard tyres, the best compound in high temperatures, and they were brand new as well. That factor certainly helped with his pace management.
The telling graph
This is also why we place Ferrari as the second force: despite using C5 Soft compounds, they were very consistent and still in line with the times set by Antonelli and Lawson.
Looking at the graph, the race appears set to be a two-way battle between Ferrari and Mercedes. However, neither Red Bull nor, above all, McLaren should be underestimated (winners of the last two rounds, although those results came at circuits with layouts very different to Monza). The Italian GP could provide excitement from the first lap to the last.
Photo: Fabiovegetti.it
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