By: A new circuit, fresh asphalt and racing lines still to be discovered. By the end of Friday, all of this had produced tyre data that worried most drivers. So much so that some, including Russell, exclaimed: “There is so much degradation that we will have to make six stops.”
He was obviously exaggerating. As mentioned, with this being the circuit’s debut GP, it is only natural for such issues to emerge in the opening days, particularly with the tyres. The track surface is undergoing significant evolution and will probably reach peak performance today, during the race. With temperatures above 50°C, that evolution will be very rapid. Severe and more sudden degradation could emerge during the opening stint; after that, tyre life should begin to stabilise.
Pirelli’s strategic advice - Madring - 57 laps
Before sharing our view on the strategies we will see in today’s race, let us look at the opinion offered by the Pirelli motorsport director after qualifying: “The Soft showed a good level of performance. FP3 was marked by a lengthy interruption, but despite this, the teams managed to assess various strategies regarding the use of the C4. Many lap-time improvements came within the same run.”
“Some overheating issues led to losses in the final sector, but overall the Soft worked very effectively. Qualifying times were half a second quicker than simulations. Some drivers also tackled Q1 on the Medium in order to preserve a set of Softs for the race.” According to the Italian manager, this will lead to “a fairly open scenario on Sunday. A one-stop remains the best option, also considering the difficulty of overtaking and the time that will be lost in the pit lane (around 25 seconds, ed.). A two-stop would become competitive if degradation returns to the levels seen on Friday.”
The best strategies therefore remain: “Medium-Hard and Medium-Hard-Hard, depending on the circumstances. Soft-Hard and Soft-Hard-Hard solutions should be around two seconds slower. The C2 is the most consistent compound, with almost all drivers having saved two sets. The Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car will also play a decisive role in strategy. A factor to take into account,” concluded Marrafuschi.
Perhaps one stop is overly optimistic
New elements bring uncertainties and major headaches. On Friday, Russell was telling us: “Six stops will not be enough,” and now Marrafuschi says: “The best strategy is one stop.” Who is right? Clearly, we do not have a crystal ball and it is difficult to say anything with certainty at the moment.
What we can say is that, in our view, we will see more two-stop approaches, also because of possible Safety Car interventions. Indeed, looking at what happened in Formula 2 and Formula 3, the start will be the most difficult moment of the race, so teams will have to think very carefully about it.
A fairly likely scenario: incidents in the opening laps with the possibility of neutralisations (Safety Car/red flag). Starting on Softs would mean having the chance to use the C4 for only a few laps, take advantage of the neutralisation to fit the first set of C2 Hards, reach around half-distance and fit the second set of white-walled C2s for the final phase: a two-stop strategy. Alternatively, teams could consider starting on Hards, ignore any potential Safety Cars and continue on the starting Hards, aiming to make just one pit stop and fit the C3 Mediums at the end.
In our view, when weighing up the two strategies, the better route is to start on the C4 Soft and then use the two sets of Hards in the subsequent phases. Trying to complete the race with only one stop is too risky. We remain convinced that two stops are more worthwhile. Six is certainly too many, but one may be very optimistic.
Ferrari: perhaps not the best event for experiments
For the Madrid GP, the C3 takes on the role of the yellow-walled Medium. Ferrari, probably given the potential degradation and the problems it has carried over from Austria, will try to do everything possible to avoid using it. But never say never. As a street-circuit round, the Madring GP could also take an unexpected turn and Leclerc or Hamilton may be forced to use it. It would be interesting to assess the SF-26’s race pace again and the progress made by the team in understanding this compound. But, on reflection, this may not be the best event for such tests.
P.S.
We have mainly discussed starting on the C4 Soft because the yellow C3 caused difficulties for many teams on Friday, not just Ferrari. That does not mean nobody will use it; on the contrary... it is certain that we will be caught out by some aspect we have not considered. It could be a particularly interesting GP from a tyre perspective.
All the news, photos, weather, session times and times from the Spain GP 2026
