By: Between qualifying and the Italian Grand Prix race, we carried out a telemetry analysis into why the two SF-26s had been unable to be competitive during Q1, Q2 and Q3. Setting aside the mistakes made in Q2, the interesting aspect to emerge (read here) concerned the difference in top speed on the straights between Russell's Mercedes W17 and the two Ferraris.
The Prancing Horse cars were losing a huge amount of time on the straights, with a gap consistently around 10km/h, if not more. Charles Leclerc, however, was able to exploit better traction out of the corners and brake much later, allowing him to remain within a reasonably competitive gap of around 0.150 seconds behind George.
The Scuderia was betrayed by false expectations
In that article, we said the gap was certainly down to the power unit and probably also to Ferrari's failure to put its drivers in a good position in Q2, when both drivers of the red cars risked elimination. However, we had overlooked one factor: aerodynamic set-up.
This was precisely what Ferrari was relying on. The team believed Alpine, Mercedes and McLaren had been so exceptionally quick in Q3 because they had reduced downforce more aggressively, but that this would work against them in the race, when the cars had to manage their tyres.
There was optimism in the Ferrari garage. They certainly did not believe it would be enough to put them in a position to win the race, but there was a feeling they would be closer to Mercedes than they had been in qualifying.
Ferrari still has an inaccurate understanding of itself
This was where a mistake greater than the mistake itself was made. The Prancing Horse team believed it would at least be able to match George's pace, but both Leclerc and Hamilton realised from the opening lap that this would not be the case. Being forced to confront reality was a cold shower, and Charles may have suffered greatly from that realisation. Leclerc retired on the second lap after his mistake at Parabolica, while Hamilton could do no better than P6 because of a wholly incomprehensible strategic choice.
Ferrari made many mistakes at Monza between qualifying and the race, but the most serious was believing in a scenario that did not exist. Team principal Vasseur's words, “It went worse than we expected”, are still ringing in our ears.
At Maranello, they still do not fully understand their own potential, and it is this inaccurate self-assessment that destabilises the environment, damages morale and unsettles the drivers as well. At this stage of the season, not knowing its own potential is becoming a very serious issue — far more serious than any mistake or wrong decision Ferrari or its drivers may have made over the weekend.
Cover photo by Luca Martini / WHYOUT Images
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