By: Monza, 6 September 2026. Ferrari did not shine in qualifying. Fourth and fifth in Q3, behind not only Mercedes but also Gasly's Alpine and Piastri's McLaren, raised plenty of questions over the effectiveness of the Prancing Horse's new power unit, which also features the second ADUO upgrade.
Fortunately for the two SF-26s, Oscar made an error in qualifying (impeding Lawson), which led the stewards to hand him a three-place grid penalty.
As a result, both Leclerc and Hamilton, as well as Verstappen, gained a position and will start from the second row, directly behind Gasly and Russell. It is an excellent place from which to begin the race, particularly given the long run to the braking zone for the first chicane. Ferrari's Saturday therefore brought both areas to analyse and work on, as well as opportunities. We will see whether the Scuderia can capitalise on them in the race.
Pirelli's strategic advice – Autodromo Nazionale di Monza – 53 laps
Before going into a little more detail – only a little, because Monza does not offer such a wide range of strategic options, at least from that perspective – let us look at the thoughts shared by Pirelli motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi at the end of Saturday: “Our simulations indicate that a one-stop strategy will be the most competitive option. There will, however, be some possible variations. The choice of starting compound will probably depend on the characteristics of each car and on the strategic approach teams want to take according to their grid position.”
“The Medium,” the Italian manager continued, “appears to offer the greatest degree of flexibility, especially in view of possible neutralisations early in the race. On paper, the fastest strategy involves starting on the C4 and making a pit stop between laps 24 and 30 to finish the race on the C3 Hard. An alternative, estimated to be around two seconds slower over the full distance, is to switch from Medium to Soft between laps 30 and 36. The C5 has proved to be a valid race option and would allow drivers to exploit a higher level of grip at the start. In this case, the optimal pit-stop window would be between laps 19 and 25, with the Hard used through to the chequered flag.”
“The data collected confirm limited degradation across all three compounds. We expect graining, as already seen on Friday, to remain limited and not to have a decisive impact on stint management,” he concluded.
The risk and the solution
The SF-26 can contend for victory, or at least has the potential to fight for the podium with both cars. How high it can aim will depend on the compound choices it makes to complete the race. It is extremely hot at Monza and, in high temperatures, Ferrari has so far – at least in the first part of the year – not particularly got on well with the C3 compound, which will be the white-walled Hard tyre here at Monza.
It is probably no coincidence that Ferrari tested its race pace on Friday using the C5 Soft compound, while also showing a highly competitive pace close to Antonelli's on the C3 white-walled tyres. In our view, Ferrari will look to manage the Medium tyres as much as possible in the early part of the race before fitting Softs for the closing stages, pursuing a one-stop Medium-Soft strategy, or at most Soft-Medium to secure a better start.
However, the success of that strategy will depend heavily on being able to execute it. Should the first stint not prove particularly strong, unfortunately, assuming the other competitors will certainly complete the race with just one pit stop, using the Hard would then become mandatory. We will see what happens.
As for Antonelli, having to start from the back, it may be better for him to use the Hard in the opening phases, allowing him to extend the first stint significantly before having a Medium or Soft for the closing part of the race and exploiting a possible tyre advantage over his rivals. In short, the Hard represents a risk for Ferrari and, conversely, a major opportunity for Antonelli.
Cover photo by Luca Martini / WHYOUT Images
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