The breaking news reported by Sky Sport F1 Italia quickly spread around the web: Max Verstappen is reportedly very close to signing with Mercedes for 2026. A sensational rumour, but one that is becoming increasingly realistic in light of certain signs that have emerged in recent weeks.
The four-time world champion is currently tied to Red Bull by a contract until 2028. However, according to well-informed sources, there is an exit clause that would allow the Dutchman to leave if, at the end of July each season, the team is not at least third in the constructors' standings. After what happened in Austria, with the accident between Verstappen and Kimi Antonelli costing the team valuable points, this scenario is becoming increasingly likely.
That incident may have indirectly facilitated negotiations between the Dutch champion and Toto Wolff, negotiations which, according to the Mercedes team principal himself, had already been underway for some time. The lack of an announcement regarding the renewal between George Russell and Mercedes only fuels speculation: if Antonelli is untouchable – given how much Wolff has invested in him – it is logical to imagine that Russell is destined for a change of team. There are at least two options on the table: a sensational move to Red Bull as part of the exchange, or a move to Aston Martin, perhaps in view of Honda's arrival in 2026.
The silly season has started early: this is the name given in Formula 1 jargon to that time of year when rumours about the market go wild and movements between teams and drivers begin to shape the future grids. It usually concentrates after the summer break, but this year it seems to have started months early.
If Verstappen were to join Mercedes, it would trigger an unprecedented domino effect: Red Bull would have to choose a replacement, perhaps drawing from its former drivers (such as Ricciardo?) or betting on young talent; Aston Martin would have to decide whether to keep its current pairing; and even Ferrari and McLaren could find themselves involved in the reshuffle, perhaps to defend their drivers from persistent courtship (remember the rumours a few weeks ago about Leclerc's possible discontent with the Scuderia).
One thing is certain: Verstappen's future has suddenly become less predictable, and with it that of the entire driver market. In the upcoming Grand Prix races – and perhaps already at Silverstone – we may see new clues or, who knows, an official announcement. At that point, the 2025 season would no longer be just that of McLaren's dominance, but also that of yet another revolution in the paddock.
Source formula1.it
